《缸邊隨筆》歐美的銀行危機,爆如一聲雷,後續如何?
1。我問過ChatGPT,矽谷銀行(SVB)事會點發展,How does SVB
incident affect US Treasury Yield?其答如下:
The collapse of Silicon Valley
Bancshares (SVB) could potentially have an
impact on US Treasury yields, although
the precise effect would depend on a
variety of factors﹒
One possible effect is that a collapse
of SVB could lead to increased uncertainty
and risk aversion in the financial
markets﹒ This could cause investors to
seek out safe-haven assets, such as US
Treasury bonds, which could drive up
demand for these securities and push their
yields lower﹒
On the other hand, if the collapse of
SVB were to lead to broader financial
instability or a loss of confidence in the
US financial system, it could cause
investors to demand higher yields to
compensate for the increased risk﹒ This
could result in higher US Treasury yields﹒
Overall, the impact of a collapse of SVB
on US Treasury yields would depend on a
variety of factors, including the severity
of the collapse, the response of
regulatory bodies and other financial
institutions, and broader economic and
market conditions at the time﹒
無料到?必然。因為個腦的資料是截至2021年的,真正發展為何?
2。美國監管當局FDIC(Federal Deposit Insurance
Corp﹒)圖快刀斬亂麻,把矽谷銀行快快賣出。一如英國的矽谷分行,由滙豐
(00005)買了,英國當局就放下心頭大石,因為之後的問題是滙豐的。但美國矽谷銀行就
不一樣了。
上周六(11日),第一次拍賣,賣不出,只好又賣第二次。奇怪的,是FDIC阻止了第
一次拍賣的買家去接手矽谷銀行,似乎美政府對矽谷銀行能賣予哪些人,是有對象了,不是你有
錢就可買。美政府不急甩手燙手山芋,為何?這可以是個政治決定,但未成事前,不多說。
3。昨日3月16日,美國踏入了個禁止公司回購期。由3月16日至3月26日,有約
40%的美上市公司進入個禁止公司回購期,估計要到4月28日才止。此即在這段期間,美股
將少了公司回購這枝大水喉,美股如有下調壓力,是可以……
花旗的Matt King如是估:
「Spring optimism was notably greater in
markets than in the real economy and was
founded on a $1tn injection of liquidity
by central banks, which seems already to
be reversing﹒ With investors now being
reminded of the risks associated with
deposits, money markets and RRP look more
alluring than ever﹒ Additional rate hikes
will make them only more so﹒ Add in the
collapse in money growth and declining
productivity, and talk of higher r* seems
premature﹒ As they say in Japan, the
blossoms of spring are all the more
precious because they bloom so briefly。」
(CITI)
譯過來:春花璀璨,惜短暫。
夠短嗎!!
*通脹仍未壓下 加息仍會繼續*
4。危機一起,錢走去邊?巴克萊銀行衍生工具部出了個圖,他們將美國2年期國債、金、
日圓的波動全併在一張圖內,找到這些資產的3天平均價達到三個標準差,是自1976年,是
,是自1976年來最高的,留意1979年是伏爾克的大加息期,這個指標是近-15%,跟
今時走向南轅北轍。為甚麼?遲些才分析。
5﹒JP Morgan做過調查,在目前你會增持股票嗎?無乜興趣喎。
6。這一兩天,美股交易量龐大,但就無乜錢到,即是乾炒,這是由高盛的Scott
Rubner(外號King of Flow,即專看資金流向的),他指出,標普500小
型期貨的錢量只200萬美元左右,是自2020年3月30日以來最低。
7。債市仍波動。
昨日(16日)提出個衡量債市波度的指數叫MOVE,前晚見MOVE指數稍低些,但仍
處高水平。
8。市場十分關注歐美加息後向,歐洲的加息預期已大幅回下,昨晚歐洲議息,結果今天大
家知。美國如何?敢大加息?No la。
9。不過歐美央行秉承革命尚未成功,同志仍須努力,即是遏通脹尚未成功,加息仍要持續
。估計在Bank Bank BANG塵埃落定後,他們又會再提加息。
唉!他們今時仍未收到市場給他們的Memo,仲加息?經濟會瓜㗎!
加息、QT會收緊銀根,歷史話,銀根鬆,全球股市的PE升;但如銀根緊,全球股市的
PE會降,即是股價跌。要留意製作此圖者是瑞信Credit Suisse,它近日股價的
走勢,充分說明,這個研究是正確的。《資深投資者 石鏡泉》
(投資涉風險,每投資者承受風險程度不一,務必要獨立思考。筆者會因應市況而買賣。)
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