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Research Report

16/01/2020 10:50

{I-bank focus}Morgan trims CSPC Pharma (01093) to HK$23.2

[ET Net News Agency, 16 January 2020] Morgan Stanley trimmed its target price for CSPC
Pharmaceutical Group (01093) to HK$23.2 from HK$25 and maintained its "overweight" rating.
The research house kept itsd 2019 forecasts largely unchanged. It cut 2020-21 sales
estimates by 4% each, mainly reflecting lower sales forecasts for Keaili (albumin-bound
paclitaxel). The national bidding for centralized procurement will open on 17 January
2020. CSPC will compete with three other companies for 3 spots in this category.
In addition, the national procurement amount was only 136.9 thousand vials, well below
CSPC's 2019 sales volume (assuming Rmn1.5bn sales in 2019 and ASP of Rmb2500, CSPC would
be selling 600 thousand vials in 2019).
Given the pricing pressure and uncertainties on volume, Morgan cut its sales growth
assumption for Keaili in 2020/2021 from 70%/20% to 20%/15%, respectively. This translates
into Rmb2.05bn sales in 2020 and Rmb2.36bn sales in 2021. As a result, Morgan's EPS
forecasts for 2020 and 2021 were lowered less by 1% and 3%. (KL)

Remark: Real time quote last updated: 28/02/2020 10:55
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