[ET Net News Agency, 27 March 2020] Daiwa Research lowered its target price for China
Life Insurance (02628) to HK$24 from HK$28 and maintained its "buy" rating.
The research house said China Life's average guarantee rate (GR) is 2.7%. Its break-even
point investment return is lower than 2.7% given the mortality/mobility spread and expense
spread.
Disclosure of OPAT (operating profit after tax) or free surplus is likely in 2020 and
China Life is likely to peg its dividend payout to such a metric, giving more visibility
on its dividend policy, Daiwa said.
Daiwa revised its 2020-21 earnings forecasts by -4%/+7% due to likely LPR (loan prime
rate) and/or benchmark interest-rate cuts, and lower EV (embedded value) due to stock
market declines, partly mitigated by rising visibility in its strong VNB growth. (KL)