[ET Net News Agency, 23 October 2019] Citi Research lifted its target price for Geely
Automobile (00175) to HK$16.9 from HK$9 and upgraded its rating to "buy" from "sell".
The research house believes Geely will be able to regain market shares under Rmb150k ASP
segment into 2020 as (1) Geely's retail sales should return to positive in 4Q; (2) Citi's
analysis suggests demand from lower-tiered cities recovery and better first time buyers
purchase should lift up budget car sales into 2020, after a 2.5 years slowdown; (3)
Pre-buying effect in 2Q which damaged 3Q retail demand appeared to be fully digested in
September; (4) Geely's inventory days has been declining with narrowed retail discount
recently.
Citi lifted up Geely 2019-21 sales volume forecast to 1.37/1.69/1.89mn units and raised
GPM forecast to 17.7%/18.5%/18.7% (core-EBIT margin to 7.7%/8.6%/8.8%) to reflect sector's
expected recovery over next 15 months. Accordingly, Citi raised 2020/21 EPS forecasts by
14%/18% to Rmb1.2/Rmb1.3. (KL)