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08/04/2024 12:09

{Market Preview}Don't be over optimistic on gold price

[ET Net News Agency, 08 April 2024] The Hang Seng Index reported a decline of 14 points
or less than 0.1% to 16,709 points in the morning session. The main board recorded a
trading volume of nearly HKD 60.6 billion. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index reported
a slight increase of less than 1 point to 5,864 points. The Hang Seng Tech Index reported
a decline of 14 points or 0.4% to 3,436 points.
The top three traded stocks on the Hang Seng Index are Tencent (00700), CNOOC (00883),
and Meituan (03690). Tencent closed at HKD 306.6, down HKD 3.4 or 1.1%, with a trading
volume of HKD 3.733 billion. CNOOC closed at HKD 19.34, up HKD 0.04 or 0.2%, with a
trading volume of HKD 1.378 billion. Meituan closed at HKD 98.1, down HKD 2.3 or 2.3%,
with a trading volume of HKD 1.307 billion. The top three traded stocks on the Hang Seng
China Enterprises Index are also Tencent, CNOOC, and Meituan. The top three traded stocks
on the Hang Seng Tech Index are Tencent, Meituan, and Xiaomi (01810). Xiaomi closed at HKD
15.32, down HKD 0.22 or 1.4%, with a trading volume of HKD 1.102 billion.

"Kingston Lin: Fed's conservative stance on rate cuts is unfavourable for Hong Kong
stocks"

With southbound funds returning from the holiday, the trading volume in the Hong Kong
stock market has increased to nearly HKD 60 billion in the first half of the day. However,
Kingston Lin, a director of the The Hong Kong Institute of Financial Analysts and
Professional Commentators Limited, told ET Net News Agency that after the Easter holiday
last week, the market reopened with similarly high trading volumes, but the overall weekly
gains were still lacking. Even though there will be an increase in trading volume today,
without any positive news to drive the market sentiment, it will still be difficult for
the Hang Seng Index to break through its trading range. Profit-taking pressure may emerge
before it reaches the HKD 17,000 level.
Kingston Lin emphasized that with the Federal Reserve's conservative stance on rate cuts
and the expectation that the timing of rate cuts will be postponed, the anticipation for
looser monetary policies in Mainland China due to U.S. rate cuts may also fade. This
situation is relatively unfavourable for both the Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets, and
the stalemate in the Hong Kong stock market may persist for a longer period.

"China and India increase gold reserves, but there is short-term profit pressures on gold
price"

Gold prices have been rising continuously, with the SPDR Gold ETF (02840) posting its
seventh consecutive day of gains, and gold mining stocks experiencing consecutive surges.
Along with aluminium and other non-ferrous metal stocks, the entire sector has been
performing well for several days. Kingston Lin explained that if the Federal Reserve is
leaning towards delaying rate cuts and the U.S. dollar remains strong, gold prices should
experience a correction. However, recent positive performance in gold prices is attributed
to reports that China and India have been increasing their gold reserves, which could
support the price. He mentioned that once the short-term impact of China and India's
increased gold reserves is digested, there may be downward pressure on gold prices at the
current high levels. Therefore, he suggests that investors who have not yet invested in
gold mining stocks should adopt a wait-and-see approach, especially with regards to Zijin
Mining (02899). After an initial sharp increase this morning, the stock's gains have
narrowed, so it is advisable to observe the situation in the afternoon before making any
decisions.
Regarding metal stocks, Kingston Lin believes that the recent rise in copper prices may
be attributed to increased demand for copper due to the development of AI. Jiangxi Copper
(00358) has recently surged, and it is expected that the stock price will find support
around HKD 14 after a pullback.

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