The market has already entered mid-October. As of the time of writing, the market's pattern this month has turned from initially low to subsequently high. The Hang Seng Index has temporarily risen from its low of 23,737 points on the 8th to a high of 24,524 points on the 14th, meaning the monthly range has slightly widened to 787 points. First, a range of 787 points cannot satisfy the month's requirements. Moreover, a month's high and low should not both occur within five trading days. Therefore, theoretically, larger price fluctuations should appear in the remaining trading days of the month, widening the range to meet monthly needs and also increasing the distance between the month's high and low to conform to customary patterns. Judging from the current market trend, the key point is whether the Hang Seng Index can successfully reclaim and firmly hold above the 10-day line (around 24,196 points). As long as the Hang Seng Index remains close to or stably above the 10-day line, it at least indicates that the market will not immediately test new lows. However, if the Hang Seng Index falls below the 10-day line again, the possibility of the market testing new lows cannot be ruled out.

*Market turnover remains thin, and this year's range remains relatively narrow*

　　Although the market has recently seen a clear rebound, the moving averages have continued to fluctuate. Currently, the arrangement of various moving averages remains in a reversed order, from top to bottom: the 250-day line (around 25,590 points), the 50-day line (around 25,050 points), the 100-day line (around 24,828 points), the 20-day line (around 24,472 points), and the 10-day line (around 24,196 points). Judging solely from this arrangement, it indicates that the overall market has been fluctuating for a prolonged period. Thus, even if the market occasionally rebounds, it is difficult to reverse the overall volatile, uncertain, and weak pattern. Moreover, market turnover has remained relatively thin. Without sufficient momentum, technically it is hard to maintain high upside expectations. Additionally, this year's market range has been relatively narrow (from the peak of 28,056 points on January 29 to the trough of 22,518 points on June 26, meaning the Hang Seng Index's range this year is only 5,538 points).

*Interest rates entering a rapid rising cycle will inevitably pressure the market*

　　Currently, it is mid-October, meaning there are still 10 weeks until the end of December. During this period, the market will remain filled with many uncertainties. As the Middle East situation remains tense, the event has pushed international oil prices back to $100 per barrel. Sustained high oil prices will inevitably push up commodity prices, thereby triggering higher inflation. The U.S. Federal Reserve, aware of this, will certainly raise interest rates to suppress inflation. With interest rates rising again, large enterprises will face financing pressures. Additionally, U.S. national debt has already exceeded 40 trillion, and the U.S. Treasury needs to issue new debt to cover old debt. That is, interest rates have entered a rapid rising cycle, which will inevitably pressure the market. Furthermore, the yen exchange rate remains persistently weak. To stabilize the yen, the Japanese government may further raise interest rates. If Japanese interest rates rise significantly, it could trigger unwinding of positions, impacting the entire financial market. (This column is published every Thursday)
　
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