[ET Net News Agency, 17 January 2020] Credit Suisse said China agreed to purchase an
additional US$200bn US goods over the next two years as part of the "phase one" trade
deal.
As one of the key imported manufactured goods, imported vehicles from the US are
estimated to increase at a similar scale as the increase in China's promised overall
imported US goods and services.
The research house estimated China's vehicle imports from the US to be up 90%/18% in
2020/2021 from US$10bn value/208K units vehicles in 2019. In order to achieve high
imported vehicle growth, Credit Suisse expects the Chinese government to reduce vehicle
import tariff from current 15% to 5%-10% in 2020.
Credit Suisse believes the upcoming further tariff cut would bring a downside risk to
luxury brands' China JVs' (Brilliance BMW, BAIC Benz) profit estimate. (KL)