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08/10/2015

為甚麼大雨偏要下在西貢,而不落他處?

  • 林超英

    林超英

    香港天文台台長(2003-2009),退休後活動多元,主力到處演講,以氣候變化為引子,促進簡樸生活、做人開心。現任香港中文大學地理與資源管理學系客座教授及香港鄉郊基金主席,關心香港的自然保育及可持續發展,以及就相關社會議題發表意見,見於網誌《草雲居》,近著有《天地變何處安心》和《天地不說話》。

    觀自然•觀香港

  今早八時至十時左右,西貢地區包括西貢郊野公園及滘西洲等,下了很大的雨,個別地點前後共錄得超過100毫米雨量,住在西貢的人很疑惑,為甚麼天文台沒有發出黃色或紅色暴雨警告?他們甚至打電話去報館投訴。

 

  如果大家看看這個時段的每小時雨量分佈圖,便會發現今天早上下大雨的地方,原來範圍很狹窄,西貢以外的香港地區只有零星小雨。 

 

 

10月7日上午8時至10時香港雨量分佈圖,黃色代表一小時40毫米或以上  

(鳴謝:香港天文台) 

 

  發出黃色或紅色暴雨警告,前提是「廣泛地區」已錄得或預料會有每小時雨量超過指定數目毫米的大雨,看到兩個雨量分佈圖,顯而易見,這場雨的覆蓋離開「廣泛地區」甚遠,因此天文台是不可能發出暴雨警告的。

 

  順便給大家看看上午九時半左右的天文台雷達圖像,感受一下當時的氣氛。

 

 紅色代表一小時100毫米的瞬間降雨率

(鳴謝:香港天文台) 

 

  為甚麼大雨偏要下在西貢而不落在他處?概括地說應該是多個因素的叠加引發的,例如空氣濕度高(西貢的相對濕度曾高達100%),附近的山勢觸發對流,風向轉變造成輻合,高空有輻散氣流等,但是具體的說法就需要靠氣象專業人員深入分析詳細的觀測資料了。

 

  類似情況多次造成行山人士碰上山洪的意外,大家千萬不可誤會秋天沒有大雨而掉以輕心,在冷暖氣交鋒時,秋天其實也會像春天一樣製造局部地區性大雨,小心啊!

 

 

 《經濟通》所刊的署名及/或不署名文章,相關內容屬作者個人意見,並不代表《經濟通》立場,《經濟通》所扮演的角色是提供一個自由言論平台。

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  • bjgeorge發表於 2015-10-11 11:55 PM
  • #39
  • 回覆 38#

    哈哈,都好大機會 ! 尼個係吾錯既藉口去號召西貢居民參加示威遊行呀 !
  • 回覆 | 引用 | 舉報
  • Simple_naive發表於 2015-10-11 09:41 PM via mobile
  • #38
  • 會唔會有政客大叫"西貢水浸係因為香港無民主"呢?
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  • 吡吡發表於 2015-10-11 05:54 PM via mobile
  • #37
  • 超哥開心啦,你個場終於咁多點擊,唔係因為你啲專業資識有幾吸引人,係人人都會因為你將政治帶入黎,即使你啲悶爆專題,亦可以九唔撘八都招來群眾,政治有乜好,你明啦!
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  • 六十後男士發表於 2015-10-11 11:07 AM
  • #36
  • Mr. Sch...
    The resolution has never been outdated unless otherwise another resolution would be pass to supercede it.
    There's one thing really outdated, that is your anti communism.

  • 引用 #30 ctang8 發表於 2015-10-11 07:31 AM

    回覆 bjgeorge That is a very outdated view: 1) reform is necessary to adapt to changing circumsta ...
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  • 六十後男士發表於 2015-10-11 11:03 AM
  • #35
  • You're a liar!
    Schizophrenia

  • 引用 #27 ctang8 發表於 2015-10-11 12:24 AM

    回覆 六十後男士 To properly answer your questions. - I am an independent thinker. - Anyone can m ...
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  • 六十後男士發表於 2015-10-11 11:00 AM
  • #34
  • The truth is it's all defamatory.
    The so-called victim's mom has openly dismissed it.
    I ask you millions time to make a report.
    But, you're reluctant to do so because you know clearly that you will be charged false report.
    Shameless liar.

  • 引用 #26 ctang8 發表於 2015-10-11 12:16 AM

    回覆 六十後男士 Your right and my right to speak here is equal. Your posts get deleted or masked ...
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  • 六十後男士發表於 2015-10-11 10:56 AM
  • #33
  • You speak whatever in your mind?
    It is only applicable during psycho therapy.
    In open web, you're expected to argue with facts and logic.
    Apparently, you are spread lie out of your anti communism and blind western culture worship.

  • 引用 #23 ctang8 發表於 2015-10-10 11:57 PM

    回覆 六十後男士 I can speak whatever in my mind. Who are you stop anyone from speaking? The ex ...
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  • bjgeorge發表於 2015-10-11 08:07 AM
  • #32
  • 回覆 28# ctang

    Dear friend, you have impressed me as an educated and mature individual. I feel sure you should have the ability to differentiate the words "reality" and " dream".

    The pains for some of my friends are that they do not accept the reality. Please read again the statement of 台灣作家"李敖"' as stated in #28.
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  • ctang8發表於 2015-10-11 07:37 AM
  • #31
  • 回覆 #29 bjgeorge


    What is it has to do with electing a mayor with being the lawful governmnet? How many governments let their people choose leaders all the way up to the presidents of the country? Again, china is so special again? Or Chinese are so special, once you are not in CCP, you are too stupid to rule?
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  • ctang8發表於 2015-10-11 07:31 AM
  • #30
  • 回覆 #28 bjgeorge


    That is a very outdated view:
    1) reform is necessary to adapt to changing circumstances for a person, a company and a country. Remember HK is requesting selection of a mayor only, ≈
    2) peacful transition is the best for the people
    3) for democracy, nobody dictates the power fo the country. Therefore, it is not about owning the country.

    Having said that, I know CCP is a selfish regime who wants to hold power forever. Perople will start with peaceful demand FIRST. Who knows...
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  • bjgeorge發表於 2015-10-11 07:22 AM
  • #29
  • 回覆 28# ctang

    The United Nations General Assembly passed the motion of Albania's Resolution 2758 on October 25, 1971, recognizing People's Republic of China was the only lawful representative of China.

    What I want to say is that (I) PRC government is the only lawful government of China (ii) Hong Kong is an SAR of China, and therefore (iii) HK is under the ruling of PRC central government.

    If you are an educated individual who listens to the facts, I hope you would accept these facts that are not difficult to understand.
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  • bjgeorge發表於 2015-10-11 06:39 AM
  • #28
  • 回覆 24# ctang

    Your comment ... quote .." It is time for reform - mainland and HK alike. "... unquote has made me think of the following statement :

    台灣作家"李敖"說得好 : 講民主,你們沒有風度,搞革命,你們不敢。不管是中國還是美國,天下都是打出來的,你們想番天,有這個膽量嗎 ?
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  • ctang8發表於 2015-10-11 12:24 AM
  • #27
  • 回覆 #19 六十後男士


    To properly answer your questions.

    - I am an independent thinker.
    - Anyone can make suggestion.
    - I am not blind. I am quite educated. When I say something is good or bad, I substantiate with facts and arguments. Unlike those calling hollow "yellow stuff gangsters" all day as you are brainwashed. Unlike those like you think you are better and bigger, and always use condescending harsh speeches or even foul languages as those triad mobs.
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  • ctang8發表於 2015-10-11 12:16 AM
  • #26
  • 回覆 #21 六十後男士


    Your right and my right to speak here is equal. Your posts get deleted or masked is because of you language. You should learn to behave yourself instead of blaming the webmaster. Some of the times, the webmaster is doing you good by deleting your posts E.g.by erasing your rape threat.
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  • ctang8發表於 2015-10-11 12:11 AM
  • #25
  • Correction - Liao Xia Po.

  • 引用 #24 ctang8 發表於 2015-10-11 12:10 AM

    回覆 bjgeorge Open minded countries will not set fences to keep out people. The fact of establish ...
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  • ctang8發表於 2015-10-11 12:10 AM
  • #24
  • 回覆 #18 bjgeorge


    Open minded countries will not set fences to keep out people. The fact of establishing diplomatic relations does not they are buying into what PRC does especially human right issues. Did up they grant Nobel peace prize to Liao Xiamen po?

    When 1 country 2 systems was proposed, PRC was a much weaker country, they are not willing now - as exhibited by zhang's and Chen's repudiation on separation of power, interpretations of basic law, 831, etc. More they don't respect HK system, more negative sentiments will be stirred up. Country can never be ruled by oppression in a long run. It is time for reform - mainland and HK alike.
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  • ctang8發表於 2015-10-10 11:57 PM
  • #23
  • 回覆 #19 六十後男士


    I can speak whatever in my mind. Who are you stop anyone from speaking?

    The existence of bullies like you proves people should never yield to violence and continue to speak.
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  • ctang8發表於 2015-10-10 11:55 PM
  • #22
  • 回覆 #20 bjgeorge


    You have earned by respect. This bullies are here to harass any opposing view. They use lies, smears, threats or harsh words. It makes people wonder where these people come back. Another sign of freedom and of speech been restricted by rascals like these.
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  • 六十後男士發表於 2015-10-10 10:10 PM
  • #21
  • Mr. newcomer, this is a forum open for liars under the protection of the web administrator.
    It is absolutely annoying to allow bad guys to spread anti-China feelings everyday.
    If you do respect freedom of expression, leave me alone and continue your high soundings words yourself.

  • 引用 #20 bjgeorge 發表於 2015-10-10 08:55 PM

    My friend, this is an open forum. We share views with people who may or may not agree with us. W ...
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  • bjgeorge發表於 2015-10-10 08:55 PM
  • #20
  • My friend, this is an open forum. We share views with people who may or may not agree with us. We live in a world full of people with diverse views. If you could not live with it, it will make you mad or crazy.

    If you get upset easily, it will affect your health. Take care.
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