26/11/2020
耶倫之外
昨文(25日)談了耶倫為下任美財相會利美股匯,今天(26日)續談耶倫及之外的事。
雖然美市場普遍歡迎耶倫為下任財相,但市場仍有些負面聲音。
(1)老人團隊
拜登是78,耶倫是74,美眾議員議長佩洛西是80。如特朗普在2024再選,他屆時會是78。看來年輕人在美國政壇是無乜機會。
(2)耶倫在2014年9月一次演講中,講到美國貧富差距,要美國窮人富一些,應要讓他們多些資產。因為今個世代的年輕人是「資產富,月入貧」Asset Rich Income Poor。甚麼意思?父母輩是有資產的,父母死後,子女繼承了遺產便富了。不過子女們的月薪,普遍低薪。耶倫作為美聯儲局主席時,她不能對此有行動,因為改善貧富問題,非局長事,今為財長,則可名正言順地去濟貧,但要劫富嗎?
要窮人有多些資產,使人又記起耶倫離任美聯儲局主席時,有句話,在她有生之年不會再有金融風險。以為耶倫卸任美聯儲局主席後,就不用因這句話負責了,但今時任財長要負責啊!
(3)一個知透美聯儲局運作規則的美財長,是否會使一個一直認為是「中立」的美聯儲局被政治化,要聽白宮「點」?
(4)現任美聯儲局長鮑威爾曾表示過,美聯儲局力盡了,要靠政府的財政政策去救經濟。耶倫會否使鮑威爾失望?
(5)日前美聯儲局有成員表示,到2023以至2024,美聯儲局都不會加息,耶倫會配合嗎?
馬蒂斯:美國要安全 結盟非樹敵
下任美政府對華會開戰嗎?
拜登屬意的國家安全顧問Sullivan於2017年一次外交政策智囊團會議中講:
"We need to strike a middle course-one that encourages China's rise in a manner consistent with an open, fair, rules-based, regional order."
"This will require care and prudence and strategic foresight, and maybe even more basically it will require sustained attention. It may not have escaped your notice that these are not in ample supply in Washington right now."
"It needs to be about our ties to the region that create an environment more conducive to a peaceful and positive sum Chinese rise".
Sullivan曾事於奧巴馬政府,她2017年之見解,今時有無變?
事實上,美國軍方不是如特朗普和蓬佩奧般熱衷去「教導」中國。
被特朗普炒了魷的國防部長馬蒂斯Mattis,日前在權威的《外交雜誌》(Foreign Affairs)表述了:
"The United States today is undermining the foundations of an international order manifestly advantageous to U.S. interests, reflecting a basic ignorance of the extent to which both robust alliances and international institutions provide vital strategic depth."
在另份《Summit News》刊物中,作者Steve Watson報道馬蒂斯呼籲拜登eliminate特朗普的American First政策因為這不利團結盟友,反而對美國國家安全構成危害,他講:
"In practice, 'America first' has meant 'America alone'. That has damaged the country's ability to address problems before they reach U.S. territory and has thus compounded the danger emergent threats pose."
他亦謂:
"In January, when President Joe Biden and his national security team begin to reevaluate U.S. foreign policy, we hope they will quickly revise the national security strategy to eliminate 'America first' from its contents, restoring in its place the commitment to cooperative security that has served the United States so well for decades."
"The best strategy for ensuring safety and prosperity is to buttress American military strength with enhanced civilian tools and a restored network of solid alliances-both necessary to achieving defense in depth," he adds, echoing the neo-conservative advocation of interventionism and 'peace through strength'.
結盟,非樹敵,才使美國安全,是馬蒂斯之大旨。
美國出土了塊「大件事」
這「大件事」是由群用直升機去追蹤美國大角羊的發燒友所發現。是在猶他州的沙漠中發現的,猶他州的安全部門發表了個很有意義或幽默的聲明:
"It is illegal to install structures or art without authorization on federally managed public lands, no matter what planet you're from."
此物是外太空物,還是地球人的傑作?相信在這個庚子年將終之時,又多個話題,會是搞笑的還是個啟示人類未來的話題?你話呢。
逢交易日中午1時,石Sir為您選股市:https://video.hket.com/video/2821839/?r=petqr01
(投資涉風險,每投資者承受風險程度不一,務必要獨立思考。筆者會因應市況而買賣。)
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