理所當然的危機

　　「假設」意指猜想或設想，在毫無證據之下，把事情當作事實，又或肯定某些事情會發生。

 

　　「有根據的猜測」與「假設」是有分別的。我花了3年來學法文，因為意大利文與法文的辭彙及文法相似，故我可能只需要2年的時間便學會意大利文，這就是個「有根據的猜測」；有家長看過電視節目或聽過朋友分享後，立心給予子女「更好」的教育，花盡積蓄送子女到海外一些落後的鄉鎮學校升學，這就是最糟糕的「假設」。事實上，深圳大學城的學費對家庭負擔經濟得多，對子女的將來更有幫助。

 

　　Susan是個有魅力、富裕的律師，被她拒絕的追求者不計其數，只因未有人能與她相稱。俗語有云：「皇帝女唔憂嫁」，她認為以自己的優厚條件，白馬王子就在不遠處。不過，這個假設是錯的，王子並沒有現身。Susan已踏入51歲，依然單身，可是目前再沒有任何的追求者。

 

　　John既有俊朗的外表，又有成功的事業，他曾經歷過3段關係，每段平均長2年。他曾有在38歲前結婚的想法，但現在已48歲的他仍在尋覓對象。10年內可以有多少個2年？「5」是個錯誤的假設，除非你在某個星期二的3時分手後，可以隨即在3時半開展一段新戀情。戀事並不能即時或自動續期，這樣下去，48歲的他仍在等待那個真命天子。

 

　　在這個充滿奇蹟的資訊時代，我們以科技發展為榮。不少學生認為學習歷史是多餘的，自以為事地作出假設，「何必呢？我們已遠遠超越我們的祖先！」先撇開令我們自愧不如的中醫學及中國文學不說，想一想萬里長城、金字塔、雅典城……這些建築久存於世。當我們努力去了解每一世紀，金星如何在數小時內在太陽表面經過時，在公元前1800年至公元250年，整個現象已被早期的瑪雅人刻在石壁之上！前人早在銀河系的知識及許多方面上遠超我們，把自己視為較優秀的一群是個厚顏無恥假設。真的有太多假設了。

 

　　夫妻之間會假設自己了解對方的心意；父母假設自己了解孩子的需要。愛假設的人會理直氣壯地偏執於自己的信念。以「不，我沒有……」來反駁他們，他們會以「有，你有做過！」來抗衡，雙方戰事隨即爆發。錯誤的假設所引致的紛爭只會在傷害造成後浮現，「不過，我以為你的意思是……」，已經太遲了。

 

　　另一災難性的假設就是猜想伴侶對自己的感覺。你的猜想只是個受情緒波動的惡作劇，對方的想法及感受或不如你所料，但你毫無證據地指出：「你不再關心我……」、「你認為我只是……」或「你注視的是他人了！」，這些例子都是錯誤的假設。防備心重的人難以接受與自己觀點相反的想法，扭曲的想法就如女巫大釜裏的煉藥，是一鍋包含各種致命成分的毒藥，內有無知、輕信、過度敏感、猜疑和傲慢。這鍋毒藥否定理性的想法，讓我們漠視事實，藐視驗證，摒棄觀察，並得出錯誤的結論，隨後的決定往往導致悲劇收場。

 

　　小心資訊世界的蜚語、社交媒體的流言、YouTube上的譏諷……媒體的力量令它們可恣意地胡混錯誤的想法為時尚，可是即使錯誤不斷重覆亦不會因而成真。為未來更順利的人生旅途著想，我們要學會分辦真假，要聆聽、驗證、查明真相。最重要的是，不要再作出假設了。

 

　　（按：中文內容乃翻譯及撮寫版本）

 

Dangerous Assumptions

 

  “Assumption”  means conjecture, or hypothesis. You accept something as true or as certain to happen, but without  proof. 

 

  There is a marked difference between an “educated guess” and an “assumption”. It took me 3 years to speak French, since Italian and French have similar roots, I could possibly learn Italian in 2 years – an educated guess. When parents, based on TV documentaries or what friends have told them, spend their life savings sending their children to remote overseas backwaters for “better” education – an “assumption” at its worst. The truth is, Shenzhen University Town would probably have made better financial sense, and more helpful to their children’s  future.

 

  Susan, an attractive, wealthy solicitor, discarded many suitors with disdain, cause nobody was ever good enough for her.  As the Chinese saying goes “ The King’s daughter worries not about betrothal !” She was so certain that with her superb criteria, Prince Charming would soon come running. Her assumptions were wrong and it didn’t happen. Susan has just turned 51, still single, & there isn’t any more suitor in sight.

 

  John is handsome and successful, has had 3 relationships, averaged 2 years each. He had wanted to be married by 38, is now 48 and still looking ... How many 2 years are there in ten years ? The answer “Five” would be a wrong assumption. Unless you break up on Tuesday at 3pm and starts a new relationship at 3:30pm,  “continuation” is neither instant nor automatic.… Hence, he is still looking at 48.

 

  In this miracle age of digital possibilities, we are so proud of our technologies. Many students find studying history superfluous, arrogantly assuming “ Why bother? we are light years ahead of our ancestors anyway…! ”  Apart from Chinese medicine & literature where our ancestors put us to shame, think of the Great Wall, Pyramids, Acropolis…they are also eons ahead of us in architecture. As we struggle to find out more about how Venus crosses in front of the sun several hours per century, early Mayans had already carved the whole phenomenon on stone murals in 1800 BC to A.D.250  ! For us to assume superiority would be shameless, cause our forefathers in fact surpassed us in galactic cosmology & many other fields by mammoth leaps. So much for assumptions.

 

  Spouses assume they know what their partners are thinking. Parents  assume they know what their children want. People who assume tend to hang on to their convictions  tenaciously and righteously.  Rebutted by  “ No, I don’t…” they’d retort with  “But yes, you do !”..and the battle is on. Disputes caused by erroneous assumptions only surface after the  damage is done…”But I thought you meant…” and that’s  too late.

 

  Another highly destructive assumption is mind-reading your partner’s feelings about  you. This mood dependent escapade tends to build up thoughts and feelings that the other person may not have at all . Uncorroborated, “ You don’t care for me anymore..”,  “ You think that I am just…”or “ You are seeing someone else! …” would be examples of  assumptions gone awry. Being defensive makes it difficult to accept explanations contrary to those you attributed to them… A contorted assumption is a witches’ brew, a deadly potion of vicious ingredients: ignorance, gullibility, hyper sensitivity, suspicion and  arrogance . The poison negates sensible thinking – we ignore facts, flout verifica-tions,  discard observations, and draw wrong conclusions. Subsequent decisions often lead to dire consequences.

 

  Watch out for digital gossips, social media hearsays, YouTube banters… The power of the media profligates wrong ideas to be fashionable, and incessant repetitions of wrongs don’t make them right. For smoother sails ahead, learn to differentiate truth from fiction,  listen, verify and ascertain. Above all, stop assuming. 

 

 

 《經濟通》所刊的署名及／或不署名文章，相關內容屬作者個人意見，並不代表《經濟通》立場，《經濟通》所扮演的角色是提供一個自由言論平台。

• 

【你點睇？】民主派初選案，45名罪成被告判囚4年2個月至10年不等，你認為判刑是否具阻嚇作用？► 立即投票