{I-bank focus}STAN expects steeper rise in HK's unemployment

    Standard Chartered Bank (STAN) Global Research has recently revised its Hong Kong 2020 GDP growth forecast to -2.4% from -1.5% as part of our assessment of Asia's exposure to coronavirus disruption.
  The bank believes the spread of the coronavirus in mainland China is already slowing and will come to a halt sometime in March; but STAN expects its impact on Hong Kong's GDP to extend beyond a sharp drop in 1Q, with a much slower recovery than was seen following the SARS outbreak in 2003.
  It noted that the domestic economy was already in recession before the outbreak, leaving little cushion for households and businesses to weather another shock. This, along with the services-oriented nature of Hong Kong's economy, suggests that it will benefit less than other Asian economies from a potentially swift normalisation of production in China.
  STAN is particularly worried about an accelerated rise in the unemployment rate, which it now sees reaching 5% (from 3.4% currently) by year-end. The government looks likely to keep tapping its sizeable fiscal reserves, allowing back-to-back yearly fiscal deficits to support more targeted economic relief measures.