Credit Suisse said Macau's February gross gaming revenue (GGR) is tracking to drop 90% despite casino reopening. Demand has been weak amid players' wealth/business disruptions on the coronavirus outbreak, fear of air travel, and suspension of visa approval (on IVS and group tours).
The research house's checks show that VIP volume is 15% of the normal level. Luck factor
is very volatile due to a small player base. Junket outlook has been cautious with volume the past few days, showing no trend of ramping post reopening. Mass GGR is only 5% of the pre-virus level. Casinos are encouraging staff to take time off.
Credit Suisse estimated that March/April GGR may drop 60-80% if the current trend persists. But it remains positive on Macau's long-term growth. It believes the market has priced in excessive optimism for the recovery at this level.
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