With China's GDP having expanded 6.2% on a year-to-date basis in 3Q, ANZ Research believes it is likely that the economy will maintain full-year growth at 6% in 2019, unless GDP growth falls below 5.5% y/y (or 1% q/q) in 4Q.
The research house cautioned against looking only at the headline figure as the precision of real GDP growth is very dependent on price assumption. In nominal terms, China's GDP growth has retreated to 7.6% y/y in 3Q from 8.3% in 2Q, signaling that the economy is slowing at a quicker pace than what the headline figure indicates.
To further support economic growth, ANZ believes the fiscal policy is the only viable tool. However, Chinese policymakers will also need to address existing funding constraints faced by local governments.
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