[ET Net News Agency, 19 February 2020] Nomura thinks the current situation is
increasingly similar to that in 2016 for the life insurance sector, with the
low-interest-rate environment being the key challenge.
When the risk-free rate trends down to below the inflection point, namely average
guarantee return to policyholders (3% by now), the research house thinks business quality
will be more important to life insurers' valuation multiple than NBV growth. Hence, it
recommended staying safe and sticking with quality names.
Nomura cut its target prices for life insurers by 3-7%, due to increased macro risks and
NBV growth pressures from COVID-19.
Name Rating Target Price
----------------------------------------------------------
Ping An (02318) BUY HK$119.27 from HK$124.79
China Pacific (02601) BUY HK$37.11 from HK$39.3
China Taiping (00966) BUY HK$26.11 from HK$27.25
New China Life (01336) BUY HK$45.70 from HK$48.58
China Life (02628) BUY HK$23.31 from HK$25.14
PICC Group (01339) BUY HK$4.21 from HK$4.33
AIA (01299) Neutral HK$84.97 from HK$85.81

(KL)