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00012 HENDERSON LAND
RTNominal down28.300 -0.450 (-1.565%)
Research Report

07/04/2020 15:02

{I-bank focus}HK primary home prices seen to down 15-20%

[ET Net News Agency, 7 April 2020] BofA Global Research assumed HK primary home prices
to be down 15-20% in 2020, office rent to be down 10-20% and retail to be down 5-20% (plus
lower turnover rent).
Compared to the GFC (global financial crisis), the research house's current assumptions
assume a shallower downturn in office (more limited supply), but a much larger drop in
retail (much higher base) and a similar drop in residential.
BofA expects HK development property margins to fall from 36% in FY2020 to 27% in FY2022
but sees no obvious clunkers. It now assumed retail concessions (7-70% rent cut) for 4-5
months. It also lowered its target prices for the developers, landlords, conglomerates,
and REIT it covers as follows:
Name Target Price
--------------------------------------------
CK Assets (01113) HK$53.0 from HK$61.0
Henderson (00012) HK$36.4 from HK$38.0
SHKP (00016) HK$126.0 from HK$134.0
Sino Land (00083) HK$11.3 from HK$12.2
New World (00017) HK$10.8 from HK$12.0
Wharf Hldgs (00004) HK$19.0 from HK$23.0
Kerry Prop (00683) HK$24.5 from HK$27.0
Hysan (00014) HK$31.8 from HK$34.4
Wharf REIC (01997) HK$34.0 from HK$41.0
Swire Prop (01972) HK$24.5 from HK$27.0
Hang Lung (00101) HK$20.0 from HK$20.6
Link REIT (00823) HK$78.0 from HK$87.0
Champion (02778) HK$4.7 from HK$5.0
Fortune REIT (00778) HK$8.2 from HK$9.9
MTR Corp (00066) HK$47.5 from HK$50.0
Swire Pacific (00019) HK$60.0 from HK$70.0
(KL)

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