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00014 HYSAN DEV
RTNominal up12.620 +0.360 (+2.936%)
Research Report

21/11/2019 09:40

{I-bank focus}Morgan cuts Hysan Development (00014) to HK$33

[ET Net News Agency, 21 November 2019] Morgan Stanley lowered its target price for
Hysan Development Company (00014) to HK$33 from HK$37 and maintained its "equal-weight"
rating.
The research house said Chinese tourists accounted for 78% of visitor arrivals to HK in
2018. It estimated they contributed 30% of overall HK retail sales and 50-60% of luxury
retail in 2018.
With diminishing pricing gaps between China onshore (including duty-free) and HK, and
improving sales channels in China (both offline and online), Morgan expects HK to face
decreasing wallet share of Chinese luxury spending.
It said Hysan has high discretionary retail exposure at 45% to total revenue in 2018.
Morgan cut its 2020 and 2021 EPS estimates by 4% and 7% as it expects retail rental income
to decline every year starting from 2H 2019. Morgan expects this trend to continue in 4Q.
It does not expect meaningful retail sales recovery even if tourist arrivals recover in
2020. It also lowered its 2020-21 DPS forecasts by 2% and 3%. (KL)

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