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RTNominal down45.600 -2.600 (-5.394%)

12/11/2019 18:01

{I-bank focus}China 4Q auto sales seen down 3.7% - JPM

[ET Net News Agency, 12 November 2019] BofA Merrill Lynch expects China FY2019 vehicle
volume sales to decline by 10% YoY, which implies November-December volume sales are
likely to see a 3.7% decline.
The research house had meetings with major auto OEMs at a recent conference it hosted in
Beijing and, overall, the auto OEMs indicated demand is close to the bottom.
November-December should see improved monthly sales (YoY) due to the base effect and an
early Chinese New Year, while they expect -3% to 3% growth in 2020 if the government does
not offer a strong stimulus policy to support demand.
NEV (new energy vehicle) volume sales continued to decline in October to 75k units,
down 46% YoY, decelerating from -4% in July, -16% in August, and -34% in September.
Battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales were down 47% YoY, and plug-in hybrid electric
vehicle (PHEV) sales fell 39% YoY in October.
JPM thinks NEV demand in November-December will continue to be bad, given: (1) EV
(electric vehicle) purchase subsidy cut still cap consumers' demand, and (2) some
consumers are concerned about NEV safety arising out of recent fire accidents.
On the other hand, JPM still sees fierce competition in the NEV market as increasingly
more JV/luxury brands launch NEV models; and it expects the competition will weigh on
industry profitability. (KL)

Remark: Real time quote last updated: 21/01/2020 17:01
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