[ET Net News Agency, 8 January 2020] Goldman Sachs lowered its target price for Yanzhou
Coal (01171) to HK$9.6 from HK$11.5 and maintained its "buy" rating.
The research house revised earnings estimates for Yanzhou by +11% for 2019, +5% for
2020, and +59% for 2021 to reflect the updated coal price assumptions. It expects the
domestic coal market to remain balanced in the coming years, yet QHD5500 coal spot price
to soften by 2.2% in 2020 for China, followed by improvement in 2021, partly affected by
the seaborne prices.
Goldman estimated Yanzhou to deliver 7-12% higher self-mined coal output in 2020-2021,
driven by the ramp up of non-HQ new mines. Unit EBIT profit is expected to reach Rmb156/t
for 2020E, 22% lower, due to lower benchmark prices, as well as the lower lagged pricing
impact on Yancoal Australia. (KL)