[ET Net News Agency, 31 January 2020] The growth of global auto sales over this decade
will be about 1% per year, only one-third the pace of 3% average annual growth since 2006,
said Moody's Investors Service in a new report.
Lower population and income growth, along with saturation in vehicle ownership rates in
urban areas, will result in slower growth in new auto sales for most countries, the credit
rating agency noted.
"Global auto markets will transform as demographic and urbanization trends and regional
shifts in income per capita growth continue to reshape auto demand," said Moody's
Associate Managing Director Elena Duggar. "For auto companies, this means that in addition
to managing the cyclical nature of auto demand, they will increasingly have to adjust to
the structural trend of a lower growth of consumer demand in many parts of the world."
In terms of unit sales, China, Europe, and the US will remain the three largest markets,
comprising about 70% of the global market in 2030. China will retain its position as the
top market for light vehicle sales in this decade, but its share will not grow much past
its current level of 30%.
On the other hand, Europe's and the US's global market shares will gradually decline,
although still remain large at 21% and 17% respectively. Asia (excluding Japan and China)
will experience the fastest growth in market share and will tie with the US at 17% market
share in 2030, rising from 13% today. Auto sales in Latin America will grow significantly,
but its global share will still remain relatively small by 2030.
In the period up to 2025, strong growth in private demand for vehicles in Asia will
support global auto sales and counteract the effects of increased ride-sharing. By 2030,
industry estimates suggest that car-sharing penetration as a percentage of passenger miles
will climb to 9%, which will then dampen the growth in personal vehicles in use. Adding to
the challenges of slowing auto demand, automakers also face the challenge of investing in
electric and autonomous vehicle technology to meet regulatory standards and evolving
consumer preferences. (KL)